Water FractalTier 2
at Card's Village Store champ
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.1% | +8.2 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.0% | +17.6 |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 7.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 34.6% | -14.8 |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.4% | -17.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Silvie | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.7 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.9% | -17.3 |
| Water Allies | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.0% | -20.8 |
| Water Astra Diana | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.6% | -1.3 |
| Water Wind Vanitas | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.2% | +8.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.4% | +7.1 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 10 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 10 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frostbind | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Burst Asunder | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Diao Chan, Dreaming Wish | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Orb of Regret | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Tidal Lock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 |